esto es un informe de un conocido banco extranjero a fines de junio de 2009. parece que Apolo es un poco mejor pronosticador...
abrazo
salva +2
The GDP warrants reward investors whenever the country exceeds a 3% y/y
growth rate. The threshold was set at 3% because this was Argentina’s
average growth rate during the past 30 years. The government argued that
acceleration beyond 3% y/y growth would be attributed to the massive
reduction in the external debt. Therefore, creditors could share in some of
the upside. Fortunately, the Argentine economy roared ahead in the aftermath
of the default. Since the completion of the debt restructuring, the
Argentine economy consistently exceeded the 3% watermark, and the GDP
warrants were one of the most lucrative instruments of the marketplace.
However, it is doubtful that there will be any coupon payment for some time.
It is important to note that payments are delayed to the following year. For
example, the payment for last year, which will be 3.17 cents, will be
disbursed at the end of this year. Still, Argentina needs to grow an average
of almost 3 ½% during the rest of this year in order to reach the 3% annual
mark. Hence, economic activity will need to accelerate, which is highly
doubtful given the adverse global environment and the end of the
pre-election spending boost. Some economists expect Argentina to suffer a
severe recession in 2009, but we believe that GDP growth will be flat to
slightly positive for the next two years. We hope that the growth rate will
rise above 3% y/y in 2011. Thus, there will be no payment on the GDP
warrants until the end of 2012. Assuming flat growth in 2009, an expansion
of 1% in 2010, and 3.1% in 2011 the payment at the end of 2012 should be
2.75 cents.
This suggests that warrants prices will probably fall well below
1 cent after the December payment. Buenos Aires could be provided with a
unique opportunity to buy back the warrants at a very steep discount, but
investors will need to wait a couple of years before they can expect to
receive additional payments. Therefore, the setback for the Kirchners could
trigger a rally for many Argentine assets, but the GDP warrants should not
be one of the big winners.
pone la quinta y daleeeeeeeeeeee