MORGAN STANLEY (hoy) lo borré por accidente... lo ve arriba de 20 USD al tvpy...
Credit suisse (ojo 14/10) :
Long ARS and EUR warrants
We continue to find GDP warrants attractive given the strong GDP growth seen thus far in
2010. The GDP warrants are now cheap options on further GDP growth, in our view. We
think dollar-denominated and euro-denominated GDP warrants look attractive, but we
prefer the peso-denominated warrants that offer the prospect of high coupons in 2011 and
2012 relative to the current warrant market price.
In Exhibit 8 we compare the current market price of the GDP warrants with our modelbased
valuation and with the expected coupon payments in the next two years based on
the base-case GDP growth scenarios listed in Exhibit 7. If our GDP forecasts for 2010 and
2011 materialize, the coupons that will be paid in December 2011 and 2012 will match the
bulk of the market price of the dollar and euro warrants and will exceed the current market
price of the peso warrants. Note that all GDP warrants in Argentina are essentially real
peso instruments. However, the FX fixing on the nearest payment on USD and EUR
warrant is fixed one year in advance reducing at the margin the peso risk.
The EUR warrants currently offer the lowest ratio of the market price to our theoretical
value. Exhibit 9 shows that the ratio of market price to fair value has been relatively stable
at about 50% since the beginning of 2009, while the ratio was lower in the crisis period,
and higher in 2007.
abrazo
salva +2
