Otros conceptos del informe:
-In external debt, we continue to expect high-yielders to outperform, and in this space,
we have shifted to Venezuela from Argentina. Our strategists have identified a
number of ways to maintain exposure to the asset class while cost-effectively limiting
the downside risks associated with global economic and financial tail risks.
- Pag 97 - Pronosticos de inflacion Global y Latinoamerica, excluida Argentina
-Before we turn to the risks to our base case, we have a thought or two on how emerging
markets fared during the most recent round of disruptions. Global anxieties did spill over to
emerging markets in some of the expected ways, for example, in pressure on the “high-beta”
sovereign credits, Argentina and Venezuela. But on balance, we find their response to the
quarter-end anxiety trade reassuring. Away from these high-beta credits, external debt traded
remarkably well – on average, higher-quality external sovereign debt barely budged
throughout the March downdraft
-We continue to believe that the riskier, high-beta credits will outperform over the year as a
whole. We have increased our substantial overweight position in the model portfolio, while
shifting the allocation from Argentina toward Venezuela, reflecting limited policy progress in
the former credit, and a boost from higher oil prices to the latter. In Venezuela, we favor the
short end of the sovereign and PDVSA curve for its very high carry and relatively greater
visibility on the ability to pay.
- Bonds we recommend….
EUR Warrant, Boden 15, EUR Discount