Fignolio escribió: ↑ Hablaron bastante ayer de los precios, entiendo igual que ellos miran más el HRC. Si mal no recuerdo, México le puso un arancel del 80% al acero chino, US tiene 25%.
".Moving on to steel prices. Steel revenue per ton decreased further in the fourth quarter as expected, reflecting lower realized prices in most of term markets. Looking forward, as market prices in the USMCA region increased during the fourth quarter, contract prices in Mexico are resetting at higher levels in the first quarter.On the other hand, during January and February, market prices in the USMCA region have been decreasing. All in all, we expect higher realized steel prices in Mexico in the upcoming quarter.Now, let's review our adjusted EBITDA and net income on a quarterly basis on Page 6. In the chart at the top, the primary factor contributing to sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA was a decline in realized steel prices, partially offset by a better cost performance and a more profitable mining operation as shown..."
"So, hot oil prices in the U.S. Well, yes, you're right, Caio, that prices has been coming down in the recent weeks, in the last 3, 4 weeks.As I said, it's not a problem of the demand, but it is a problem of imports that are coming mainly to the U.S. and San Paras to Mexico. So, that's the main reason. The good news is that demand is already still there. And I think this is going to be something that it's going to stabilize in the near future. I don't see prices going much further down.As I always said, there is a new floor or a new standard of prices in North America that is around or a little bit higher of $900 million at least. So, I don't think prices are going to change. Again, because the demand is there and we know imports for the following months in May, June, July, are coming much more lower. So, I am positive about that."
Es cierto, pero lee entre líneas :
Moving on to steel prices. Steel revenue per ton decreased further in the fourth quarter as expected, reflecting lower realized prices in most of term markets. Looking forward, as market prices in the USMCA region increased during the fourth quarter, contract prices in Mexico are resetting at higher levels in the first quarter.On the other hand, during January and February, market prices in the USMCA region have been decreasing. All in all, we expect higher realized steel prices in Mexico in the upcoming quarter.
1) habían predicho ( lee el anterior conference call precios significativamente más elevados para este primer Q
Se equivocaron, no reconocen el impacto de ese error ( daban por hecho esa suba como sostenida )
2) Con tal de mostrar cara linda dicen : “all in all we expect higher prices in upcoming quarter”
Ese comentario es engañoso porque da a entender que lo esencial es el upcoming quarter , que será con un suave aumento, mientras que lo que sigue, y afectará al segundo , será Lower prices .
Con el dato de bajos precios actuales el panorama es el inverso al de septiembre, y hasta donde se pueda ver es más importante para el valor presente de la empresa que un globito en un quarter.
Si Mexico le puso 80% de arancel al acero Chino ( no creo que sea ese número ) , significa que los precios internos del acero en Mexico están colgados de un pincel.
Me ratifico en el resto de las afirmaciones que hice ( moneda sobrevaluada, precios como los de 10 años atrás en un contexto donde la inflación come márgenes )
