VALO Grupo Financiero Valores

[Tecnicalpro]

Bloomberg
Markets
Argentine Peso Is the Global Leader After Macri’s Election Choice
By Sydney Maki
12 de junio de 2019 12:52 GMT-3 Updated on 12 de junio de 2019 16:14 GMT-3

The Argentine peso, long famed as the world’s worst performing currency, posted its biggest gain since April after President Mauricio Macri unveiled an opposition leader as his running mate in October’s vote, potentially broadening his appeal and boosting his chances of reelection.

The peso leaped 2.4% to 43.67 to the dollar Wednesday, making it the best performing currency in the world on the day. Yields on Argentina’s century sovereign bonds fell 5.5 basis points to 9.72%, after tumbling 47 points late yesterday following the announcement.

The peso had tumbled this year on rampant inflation and concern that former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner would return to power. Kirchner, who now plans to run as vice president to Alberto Fernandez, is regarded as a populist who may seek to re-impose currency controls and renegotiate the terms of an International Monetary Fund loan. Yesterday’s announcement of Miguel Pichetto as Macri’s running mate makes that less likely, said TPCG Valores SA chief economist Juan Manuel Pazos in Buenos Aires.

It’s “a game changer both in the dynamics of the campaign and, more importantly, after the election,” Pazos wrote in a note to clients. “If the government gets re-elected, Pichetto could be a key player in building the legislative coalition required to pass the next administration’s agenda.”

Here’s what analysts are saying about the impact on emerging markets:

TPCG Valores’ Pazos

Recommends additional duration risk on the USD curve given possibility election could be done by August as scale tips toward ruling Cambiemos alliance
Expects compression to concentrate in front-end and belly of the local law curve, with 2020-33 bonds benefiting the most
Announcement stole the spotlight from Kirchnerism and will probably nip away at Kirchner’s move to attract governors
Hernan Ladeuix, strategist at AR Partners SA in Buenos Aires

Pichetto may not add votes right away for Macri, but “significantly improves governability until and after the elections”
Announcement improves the odds of financial stability to continue, helping the ruling alliance
Government will try to win support from Peronist provincial governors and could “radically change the national political landscape” if successful
With that support, Cambiemos have a better chance at winning, which would remove the high electoral risk being discounted in asset prices
Fernando Jorge Diaz, economist at Citigroup Global Markets in New York

If markets continue to react positively, “it could have a self-fulfilling effect: lower financial tension could boost the economy, increasing the likelihood of a Macri victory (which remains as our base case)”
Doesn’t see Pichetto adding votes to Macri
Expects moderate Peronists to drop their candidacies, adding to more polarization between main tickets

[Andycordobes]

Excelente Valo en lo que va del año 58 % + Dividendos

Lo cual nos da un acumulado de 68%
11.33 % mensual

[Tecnicalpro]

Excelente Valo en lo que va del año 58 % + Dividendos

[Cuchi1982]

Una lastima que con semejante volumen no se haya logrado mayor suba antes de que venga una toma de ganancia!

[ezerol2k]

como se agota rapido en la suba

SUBA POR INERCIA ( igual que Metrogas )

Con la correccion, digiere lo poco que subio en unos minutos

No se en que te basas, si lo haces por AT o por AF o por OGT, pero cada vez que te leo no dejo de pensar en eso que aprendí de chiquito: “Hasta un reloj descompuesto da dos veces por día la hora justa”.
Saludos y espero un día deje de ser tan negativo!!! Como dicen por ahí... si no le gusta no compre y listo!!!

[Tecnicalpro]

ESTO SIGUE POR UN LARGO TIEMPO CON ALGUNAS CORRECCIONES PERO SIGUE HASTA LAS ELECCIONES ., CON BAJA DEL DOLAR DE 1 O 2 PESOS ... SI MI INFORMACION ES CORRECTA

Está bastante acertado el pronóstico, se aleja la posibilidad de una corrida el dólar descomprime

[italoguarani]

ESTO SIGUE POR UN LARGO TIEMPO CON ALGUNAS CORRECCIONES PERO SIGUE HASTA LAS ELECCIONES ., CON BAJA DEL DOLAR DE 1 O 2 PESOS ... SI MI INFORMACION ES CORRECTA

[PAPU07]

Papu

el dolape Larreta les dio mas incremento que la infleta

Soy de clase obrera, un simple empleado y mi salario cayo un 23% en menos de un año y medio, con respecto a la inflacion del mismo periodo

[Danilo]

SI SEÑOR

Ya lo aclare, cuando Valo supere 12 $ ( obviamente NO lo hara) por eso hago mi apuesta

Papu

el dolape Larreta les dio mas incremento que la infleta

[PAPU07]

AHHHH OK OK!!!
Y CUAL VA A SER EL MAXIMO DE ESTA ACCIÓN EN CORTO PLAZO POR QUE YO COMPRE CUANDO ESTABA NUEVE

A mi criterio, estamos cerca de maximos. Pero consulte con su agente de bolsa

Jajajaja jajajaja jajajaja

Seguí participando

NO COMPRENDO

[Tecnicalpro]

Jajajaja jajajaja jajajaja

Seguí participando

[Tecnicalpro]

Jajajaja jajajaja jajajaja

Seguí participando

[Jmjerez]

SI SEÑOR

Ya lo aclare, cuando Valo supere 12 $ ( obviamente NO lo hara) por eso hago mi apuesta

AHHHH OK OK!!!
Y CUAL VA A SER EL MAXIMO DE ESTA ACCIÓN EN CORTO PLAZO POR QUE YO COMPRE CUANDO ESTABA NUEVE

[PAPU07]

USTED NO SE RETIRABA DEL FORO ?

SI SEÑOR

Ya lo aclare, cuando Valo supere 12 $ ( obviamente NO lo hara) por eso hago mi apuesta

[Jmjerez]

como se agota rapido en la suba

SUBA POR INERCIA ( igual que Metrogas )

Con la correccion, digiere lo poco que subio en unos minutos

USTED NO SE RETIRABA DEL FORO ?