Mensajepor Robyroten » Mar Feb 27, 2018 1:44 pm
Informe de Itau sobre ByMA:
We are initiating coverage of Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (ByMA) with an outperform rating and a
YE18 target price of ARS 500/share, implying a 56.3% upside (41.3% in USD terms). ByMA is Argentina’s
only vertically integrated exchange, with absolute dominance in equities trading and the custody of securities.
We believe that ByMA is the best vehicle to play Argentina’s recovery and the development of its capital
markets.
Our YE18 target price of ARS 500/share provides 56.3% upside to our estimated fair value, which we base on
a discounted cash flow estimate that assumes a 4.5% long-term growth rate. The target price is consistent with
2019e multiple of 19.7x P/E and 15.5x EV/EBITDA, which we deem reasonable in light of ByMA’s high
expected growth. Adjusting by growth, ByMA is trading at a 0.74x FEV/EBITDA/EBITDA CAGR 2019-21.
Momentum
We expect 27% nominal earnings CAGR through 2022, driven by large increases in equities ADTV and
a significant increase in the assets under custody at the central securities depository level. On top of
that, we expect the company to widen its EBIT margin to 50% by 2019 (35% YTD) as a result of the
development of the market and cost dilution.
Risks
Risks to our investment thesis could include: i) new competitors entering the market; ii) Argentina failing to be
reclassified as an emerging market by MSCI in June 2018; iii) Caja de Valores’ limitation on dividend
distribution remaining in place as rates go down; and iv) an external shock in the capital markets.