APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

[leo cliff]

Estados Unidos - Inventarios de petróleo crudo

Actual -4,934M Previsión -2,100M

[Galaico]

y cuando pasamos los dichosos 60 ....

[Recalculando]

Me fui perdiendo 58.75..... suerte a todos los que se quedan.....creo incluso hoy puede estar a $ 60

[pablete]

¿ Ud FedeAndres, quiere ser millonario ? Si sale del canal es para huír me parece.

Coincido con lo de la huída. Todavía sostenemos el canal, más allá del final horrible de ayer. Hoy debería confirmarlo, pero de no ser así, es una señal de fortaleza. Veremos...

[leo cliff]

Bien resumido:
http://www.infomoney.com.br/petrobras/n ... -sobre-que

Maso:
http://bienvista.blogspot.com.ar/2015/0 ... te-ii.html

Gracias a todos por los saludos!

hay mucha info que aprender para la gente nueva que esta en esta empresa.

Muchas gracias dosto!

[FedeAndres]

Jotace, la nota está bien, pero el error es coordinarla con la suba de 5 a 9. La consecuencia de todo lo expuesto en la nota es la baja de 20 a 5.

[leo cliff]

Es una semana de rumores, fijense q la misma agencia q ayer la hizo bajar hoy la hace subir...a pulso firme y con plan definido...o la ñata contra el vidrio... como siempre

Hola dosto, que rumores? no estoy al tanto

[jotace01]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3277565 ... hort-lived




Value Ideas
Gold, utilities, solar, oil & gas
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Why The Recent Rally In Petrobras Might Be Short-Lived
Jun. 23, 2015 9:49 AM ET | About: Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary

PBR's shares have gained impressively this year despite a steep fall in its financial performance and an economic crisis in brazil.
The Brazilian GDP is slated to drop 1.2% this year, while inflation could rise 8.31%, which will ultimately lead to a drop in oil consumption and hurt PBR.
PBR is already facing weakness in Brazil as its oil product sales were down 6% last quarter, and the trend could continue due to the government's radical measures.
Investment in Brazil has declined for seven consecutive quarters, while the auto industry is in a very bad shape, which further indicates that demand for oil will drop.
PBR has a highly-leveraged balance sheet when compared to other large oil producers, raisjng another red flag for investors.
I find it surprising to see that Brazilian oil and gas company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has gained 30% on the stock market so far this year. This is despite the fact that the Brazilian economy is in a recession, oil prices have declined in the past year, and Petrobras' financial performance has declined rapidly. Additionally, the company is in the midst of a corruption scandal. All these seem to have taken a toll on the company, as Petrobras had seen a massive drop of almost 25% in revenue in the previous quarter reported last month, while its earnings also declined.

As such, investors who are still holding on to Petrobras' shares should take a closer look at the problems that the company is facing and exit their positions.

A recession in Brazil will hinder Petrobras' performance

In the first quarter of 2015, the Brazilian economy shrunk by 0.2%. Looking ahead, it is expected that the economy will decline 1% this year, and there are no signs of a turnaround in 2016 either. In fact, the government in Brazil has tried to adopt aggressive measures such as reducing spending, increasing taxes, and raising electricity rates.

In my opinion, these moves will not spur growth in Brazil as corporations will continue to slash spending due to higher taxes and utility rates. As reported by Bloomberg:

"It's everything we wouldn't like to see," Alvaro Bandeira, a partner at Orama Asset Management, which oversees 248 million reais ($81.9 million) in Rio de Janeiro, said by telephone. "We want to see the government cutting costs, cutting ministries, not decreasing investments or increasing taxes. Banks, as well as the economy, will decelerate."

Thus, it is likely that the government's radical measures will ultimately backfire and not spur investment in the economy. In fact, the Brazilian economy has already seen seven consecutive quarters of investment declines, while household and government consumption has dropped 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in the first quarter.

A drop in consumption indicates that crude oil demand in Brazil should ideally come down, and this is already happening. For example, in February this year, demand for oil in Brazil declined 7% year-over-year, with gasoline and diesel demand dropping 9% and 13% year-over-year, respectively. One of the key reasons behind lower consumption is the hike in excise duty on gasoline, which seems to have priced consumers and corporations out of the market as the economy is in a recession.

Going forward, it is likely that consumption of oil in the country will continue declining due to a decline in investment and consumption. For instance, the auto industry in Brazil has been beaten down badly in the past few months. The auto industry is key to Brazil's economy, as it accounts for a fourth of the country's industrial GDP. However, the economic crisis has led to mass layoffs in the auto industry as sales of cars and trucks have declined.

This will have a cascading effect on oil consumption, as less number of vehicles on the roads means that demand will drop. In fact, the Brazilian Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association forecasts that vehicle production in the country will drop 18% this year as compared to 2014.

Thus, it is evident that demand for oil in Brazil will decline, thereby reducing Petrobras' addressable market. As such, even though the company is focused on increasing its production further, it will not be able to rescue its top line due to lower demand. This was clearly evident in its recent results as well, as despite increasing production by 11% year-over-year, Petrobras' revenue declined massively.

Increasing production is not the answer to Petrobras' problems

Given the decline in household and government consumption in Brazil, along with a drop in investments, Petrobras' move to increase production will not help it recover, despite its focus on operational efficiency. In fact, Petrobras was able to achieve record production of 800,000 barrels per day in the previous quarter, as shown below:



Source

Looking ahead, the company aims to increase production further on the back of efficiency gains. For instance, the company has been interconnecting its wells to boost production. In the first quarter of 2015, it interconnected 22 wells and hopes to increase that number to 69 by interconnecting another 47 wells this year.

Although this might increase operational efficiency and increase production, investors should not forget that Petrobras' oil product sales in Brazil were down 6% last quarter due to weak economic activity, and the trend is expected to continue. In fact, Brazil is expected to see its worst recession since 1990, with GDP expected to contract 1.2% and inflation expected to increase to 8.31%.

Conclusion

Petrobras might have made an impressive run on the stock market so far this year, but the company is facing a number of challenges as stated above. At the same time, it has a highly-levered balance sheet with a debt-equity ratio of 131, which is much higher than other large oil companies such as ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), which has a ratio of just 18.5 and BP (NYSE:BP), which has a ratio of 52.

In fact, Petrobras has $130 billion in debt, while its combined cash and operating cash flow stand at less than $45 billion. Thus, in light of the points discussed above, I think it will be wise for investors to avoid Petrobras as its recent run on the market might come to an end.

[Dostoievsky]

Haganle caso a Dosto y tengan un plan bien definido. Sino compran por euforia y venden por miedo.

Y es mas, ponele que vendiste de acuerdo a tu plan y acto seguido se vuela...nada de putear, felicitate por tu disciplina y fijate que falló, anotalo y move on.

[remador]

Haganle caso a Dosto y tengan un plan bien definido. Sino compran por euforia y venden por miedo.

[chanaon]

Hola colegas...me estoy ilusionando que esta suba es genuina y no va a caer en picada...vamos pebeta morenita querida....

Merecemos un Premio los que la Bancamos!!!

[ave fenix]

Buenas apertura y buen volumen!!!
Paciencia budista!!!!

[new_zombie]

Hola colegas...me estoy ilusionando que esta suba es genuina y no va a caer en picada...vamos pebeta morenita querida....

[Francodiaz]

Hoy no hay muro en 9.60,

[FedeAndres]

Las medias simples 200 50 y 20 a punto de