Mensajepor ALIBABA » Jue Mar 12, 2015 9:13 am
Petrobras (ON) (Neutral, R$10.50 from R$15) - Equity
issuance Q&A: how soon and at which prices? Lower PT
to reflect $20bn offering risks (Lilyanna Yang, CFA) Click
on this report
We have cut down our PT to R$10.50 from R$15. EPS
2014E/15E/16E: -42%, -28%, +37%. According to Agencia
Estado and Folha de Sao Paulohas, the CFO asked for Board
authorization for $19bn in new funding – this makes sense
but capital needs could be half depending on how much the
new mgmt. can deliver in terms of asset sale, capex
reduction, price hikes. We believe equity issuance risks are
up, justified by a much weaker BRL, higher-than-anticipated
near-term Brent, and fears that Fitch or S&Ps might also
downgrade co's credit to junk bonds. This $19bn or R$60bn
(c.50% of market cap) could be done 100% in PN shares if at
>R$6/sh (vs. R$8-9 market prices). With investment grade in
mind, issuing equity does reduce the risk of another credit
rating downgrade but could arguably also underscore Govt's
potential plans to go ahead with as much capex as possible
and with high local content. We think a dilutive R$60bn
offering is already priced-in but cut our 12-m PTs by bold 30-
24% for ON-PNs to reflect deteriorating macro outlook/
balance sheet/production curve, plus improving but still
below-par governance standards. Key questions are: 1)
When? Post-release of FY14 and more changes to Board, so
as to make valuation/any deals more attractive/less dilutive to
existing shareholders?; and, 2) At which prices? R$5, R$10 or
R$15/sh? Our new PT already reflects nearly nil value
assigned for anything other than proven reserves or risks of
equity issuances at low R$5-6/sh prices (Figure 3,4) so as to
allow co. to monetize reserves. CEO Bendine indicated a
R$88bn write-off would be "too much", but UBSe of
R$25bn is enough to wipe out accounting earnings.
Regardless, we still think co. will pay the minimum priority PN
yield although with delays (click here for details), and now
show that an hypothetical R$60bn equity issuance at low
R$5-6/sh would still mean attractive 6-8% minimum priority
PN yield (down from c9-11% yield today). Details on Figure
8. Valuation: new DCF/SOTP-based R$10.5-13 for ON-PN
shares, rated Neutral-Buy. Our 2015-16 EPS changed by
>10% on weaker BRL and lower production curve. In this
note we also update investors with changes to 4 of 5 key
Petrobras valuation drivers: (i) macro, (ii) financial statements,
(iii) governance signals, (iv) capex, (v) local content/Sete
Brasil/production growth. See pg. 2 of full note for our R$20-
5/sh Upside-Downside cases.