APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

[ALIBABA]

Petrobras (ON) (Neutral, R$10.50 from R$15) - Equity
issuance Q&A: how soon and at which prices? Lower PT
to reflect $20bn offering risks (Lilyanna Yang, CFA) Click
on this report
We have cut down our PT to R$10.50 from R$15. EPS
2014E/15E/16E: -42%, -28%, +37%. According to Agencia
Estado and Folha de Sao Paulohas, the CFO asked for Board
authorization for $19bn in new funding – this makes sense
but capital needs could be half depending on how much the
new mgmt. can deliver in terms of asset sale, capex
reduction, price hikes. We believe equity issuance risks are
up, justified by a much weaker BRL, higher-than-anticipated
near-term Brent, and fears that Fitch or S&Ps might also
downgrade co's credit to junk bonds. This $19bn or R$60bn
(c.50% of market cap) could be done 100% in PN shares if at
>R$6/sh (vs. R$8-9 market prices). With investment grade in
mind, issuing equity does reduce the risk of another credit
rating downgrade but could arguably also underscore Govt's
potential plans to go ahead with as much capex as possible
and with high local content. We think a dilutive R$60bn
offering is already priced-in but cut our 12-m PTs by bold 30-
24% for ON-PNs to reflect deteriorating macro outlook/
balance sheet/production curve, plus improving but still
below-par governance standards. Key questions are: 1)
When? Post-release of FY14 and more changes to Board, so
as to make valuation/any deals more attractive/less dilutive to
existing shareholders?; and, 2) At which prices? R$5, R$10 or
R$15/sh? Our new PT already reflects nearly nil value
assigned for anything other than proven reserves or risks of
equity issuances at low R$5-6/sh prices (Figure 3,4) so as to
allow co. to monetize reserves. CEO Bendine indicated a
R$88bn write-off would be "too much", but UBSe of
R$25bn is enough to wipe out accounting earnings.
Regardless, we still think co. will pay the minimum priority PN
yield although with delays (click here for details), and now
show that an hypothetical R$60bn equity issuance at low
R$5-6/sh would still mean attractive 6-8% minimum priority
PN yield (down from c9-11% yield today). Details on Figure
8. Valuation: new DCF/SOTP-based R$10.5-13 for ON-PN
shares, rated Neutral-Buy. Our 2015-16 EPS changed by
>10% on weaker BRL and lower production curve. In this
note we also update investors with changes to 4 of 5 key
Petrobras valuation drivers: (i) macro, (ii) financial statements,
(iii) governance signals, (iv) capex, (v) local content/Sete
Brasil/production growth. See pg. 2 of full note for our R$20-
5/sh Upside-Downside cases.

[ALIBABA]

Petrobras (ON) (Neutral, R$10.50 from R$15) - Equity
issuance Q&A: how soon and at which prices? Lower PT
to reflect $20bn offering risks (Lilyanna Yang, CFA) Click
on this report
We have cut down our PT to R$10.50 from R$15. EPS
2014E/15E/16E: -42%, -28%, +37%. According to Agencia
Estado and Folha de Sao Paulohas, the CFO asked for Board
authorization for $19bn in new funding – this makes sense
but capital needs could be half depending on how much the
new mgmt. can deliver in terms of asset sale, capex
reduction, price hikes. We believe equity issuance risks are
up, justified by a much weaker BRL, higher-than-anticipated
near-term Brent, and fears that Fitch or S&Ps might also
downgrade co's credit to junk bonds. This $19bn or R$60bn
(c.50% of market cap) could be done 100% in PN shares if at
>R$6/sh (vs. R$8-9 market prices). With investment grade in
mind, issuing equity does reduce the risk of another credit
rating downgrade but could arguably also underscore Govt's
potential plans to go ahead with as much capex as possible
and with high local content. We think a dilutive R$60bn
offering is already priced-in but cut our 12-m PTs by bold 30-
24% for ON-PNs to reflect deteriorating macro outlook/
balance sheet/production curve, plus improving but still
below-par governance standards. Key questions are: 1)
When? Post-release of FY14 and more changes to Board, so
as to make valuation/any deals more attractive/less dilutive to
existing shareholders?; and, 2) At which prices? R$5, R$10 or
R$15/sh? Our new PT already reflects nearly nil value
assigned for anything other than proven reserves or risks of
equity issuances at low R$5-6/sh prices (Figure 3,4) so as to
allow co. to monetize reserves. CEO Bendine indicated a
R$88bn write-off would be "too much", but UBSe of
R$25bn is enough to wipe out accounting earnings.
Regardless, we still think co. will pay the minimum priority PN
yield although with delays (click here for details), and now
show that an hypothetical R$60bn equity issuance at low
R$5-6/sh would still mean attractive 6-8% minimum priority
PN yield (down from c9-11% yield today). Details on Figure
8. Valuation: new DCF/SOTP-based R$10.5-13 for ON-PN
shares, rated Neutral-Buy. Our 2015-16 EPS changed by
>10% on weaker BRL and lower production curve. In this
note we also update investors with changes to 4 of 5 key
Petrobras valuation drivers: (i) macro, (ii) financial statements,
(iii) governance signals, (iv) capex, (v) local content/Sete
Brasil/production growth. See pg. 2 of full note for our R$20-
5/sh Upside-Downside cases.

[visionario]

Jajjaja un poco de humor viene bien ante esta catarata de , quien tiene la verdad absoluta? Nadie...
Evitando herir suceptibilidades zorro, me rei mucho
Gracias x los aportes de todos, trato de aprender.

[neofito]

Igual muy buenos aportes para describir a los foristas, pero para describir al papel ... mmm

[neofito]

SI, soy un nabo y me comporto como tal pero al menos no soy un YETA !

[ProfNeurus]

Buenas noches queridos coleccionistas! Furzio estudia! Resero reza! Putcall te hubiese sido de más provecho vender calls y comprar puts! Valiant hermosos graficos pero hasta acá de poco te sirvieron! Taz decías que explotaba para arriba y no paro de bajar! Prof neuros si sigue promediando a la baja el promedio le va a quedar cerca del 0 ! Neófito las variaciones del precio de Pbr te dejaron en evidencia como el nabo del foro! Profe agarre los guantes así boxea después de leer esto! Gastón 89 pensa en tus bisnieto para regalarle las Pbr, si se las dejas a tus nietos capaz les convenga que les regales un sugus! Mr osiris seguí escribiendo flechitas que seguro pasa lo contrario al colór que posteas! Kubrick haces buenos diagnósticos pero no sabes operar! ricota el rebote que pronosticaba a 8 será del culo te abrocho o de Pbr te abrocho pero no del precio ! Ciruzzo el millonario anda pensando en cambiar el nick a Ciruzzo el mendigo o el pobre ( aclara que por elección).!
Si me olvido de alguno perdonen
Saludos cordiales

Zorro

Te olvidaste de EL zorro, ese personaje que cada vez que dijo que vendio, en ese momento el papel dio rebote , el que cada vez que compro la acción se volvio cayo... el que dijo HOY VERDE con aire sobrador y se clavo un menos 10....

Fuera de eso... ojala mi promedio llegue a cero... mas barato que eso no se puede estar...

Igual me cae bien Usted Don Zorro.

[el profe]

Buenas noches queridos coleccionistas! Furzio estudia! Resero reza! Putcall te hubiese sido de más provecho vender calls y comprar puts! Valiant hermosos graficos pero hasta acá de poco te sirvieron! Taz decías que explotaba para arriba y no paro de bajar! Prof neuros si sigue promediando a la baja el promedio le va a quedar cerca del 0 ! Neófito las variaciones del precio de Pbr te dejaron en evidencia como el nabo del foro! Profe agarre los guantes así boxea después de leer esto! Gastón 89 pensa en tus bisnieto para regalarle las Pbr, si se las dejas a tus nietos capaz les convenga que les regales un sugus! Mr osiris seguí escribiendo flechitas que seguro pasa lo contrario al colór que posteas! Kubrick haces buenos diagnósticos pero no sabes operar! ricota el rebote que pronosticaba a 8 será del culo te abrocho o de Pbr te abrocho pero no del precio ! Ciruzzo el millonario anda pensando en cambiar el nick a Ciruzzo el mendigo o el pobre ( aclara que por elección).!
Si me olvido de alguno perdonen
Saludos cordiales

Zorro

Te quiero igual zorro! En esta lo único que pierdo es tiempo!

[putcall]

No solo no los bando sino que les seguiré comprando a los que vendan.

jaajajjaajaj tienden a 0!

[mr_osiris]

que impiadoso....

No solo no los bando sino que les seguiré comprando a los que vendan.

[Taz]

Está operando ese *, alguien le pagó un sobre para que acelere la baja o la suba, así vuela con menos peso de carga

No te entendí bien neofito.

[J.E.D.]

Coincido con valiant. Las elecciones van a marcar el techo del merval. Salvo alguna olvidada el resto de las empresas están carisimas. Mas compadadas con brasil. Sin dudas es para arbitrar este año arg x Brasil

[neofito]

Está operando ese *, alguien le pagó un sobre para que acelere la baja o la suba, así vuela con menos peso de carga

[neofito]

Está operando ese *, alguien le pagó un sobre para que acelere la baja o la suba, así vuela con menos peso de carga

[neofito]

Está operando ese *, alguien le pagó un sobre para que acelere la baja o la suba, así vuela con menos peso de carga

[Taz]

Cuando veo el panel líder del merval, me siento como un hincha de riber. Es una sensación horrible, no la puedo explicar

Ya falta poco Resanata, para ganar hay que darle al mismo clavo.