APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

[PiConsultora]

O se viene algo horrendo y todas estas noticias (algunas irrelevantes, la gran mayoría archiconocidas) pésimas, informes negativos, baja de precios target, etc sirven de "cobertura" -yo te avise- o es la ultima estocada para comprar abajo...No paran de tirarle con todo lo que encuentran.

Su situación financiera es conocida por todos los Bancos/FCI/Inversores. Su nivel de deuda por consecuencia está descontado hace rato. La injerencia política ya sabíamos todos que existía. todos los etc...son viejos (incluida la corrupción-que es mas, sirve que se entile, para que se cuiden mas). Que la SEC investigue...jejeje...humo. Que hay riesgo de capitalización... siempre dicen lo mismo (es mas en el mismo informe, el analista dice que en realidad no tiene problemas para acceder a tomar deuda; pero se capitalizaría para no ver su credit rating rebajado.....por otro lado el credit rating todas las calificadoras lo atan al estado Brasilero). yo no creo capitalicen... El mismo BTG dice que en caso de no capitalizar y cumplir con su balance, el escenario es de 22USD por ADR...

por otro lado.. Vale, Banco do Brasil o cualquier otro activo Brasilero esta igual de golpeado, pero los riesgos son otros...

Creo que el anuncio de nuevo Ministro de Economía, si este es Meirelles o Trabucco hará de excusa perfecta para despegar Brasil..necesitan una excusa.... por que mientras pueden alimentar osos.

Veremos que dice el balance, donde los expected son bastante alcanzables y a quien nombra Dilma para Economía...

Estos precios son viles, ridículos y todos estos Bancos/Analistas son en realidad los que mas maltratan a la empresa..aun mas que el propio estado....Me tiene harto..muy harto..nada sirve, nada alcanza... algún dia tal vez investiguen a Exxon, RDS, etc... hasta BP después de los tremendos desastres siempre se mantiene en valores lógicos de ratios.

[tordosoy]

BN) Petrobras Supplier Sinks as Probe Dims Prospects: Brazil Cr edit

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Petrobras Supplier Sinks as Probe Dims Prospects: Brazil Credit
2014-11-10 17:38:01.200 GMT


(To be sent this column, click SALT BZCREDIT. For credit- market news, click on TOP CM.)

By Peter Millard and Anna Edgerton
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Having Brazil’s state-run oil giant. ETC ETC ETC.

Gaston...me traducis la idea por favor??

Eso Gastón.. vos que estás al dope...

[Gaston89]

(DPA) Vicepresidente de Brasil minimiza investigación de EEUU a Petrobras

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Vicepresidente de Brasil minimiza investigación de EEUU a Petrobras
2014-11-10 17:47:58.971 GMT


Vicepresidente de Brasil minimiza investigación de EEUU a Petrobras

Sao Paulo, 10 nov (DPA) -- El vicepresidente de Brasil, Michel Temer, minimizó hoy las investigaciones sobre las denuncias de corrupción en la petrolera Petrobras que, según el diario británico "Financial Times", fueron iniciadas por el Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos.
Durante un encuentro con alcaldes de todo el país en el estado de Sao Paulo, Temer recordó que las denuncias sobre la desviación de dinero de la empresa en beneficio de agrupaciones políticas aliadas del gobierno -entre ellas el oficialista Partido de los Trabajadores (PT)- también están siendo investigadas por la Justicia brasileña.
"La Constitución brasileña destaca el principio de autodeterminación de los pueblos. Si los Estados Unidos abrieron una investigación, debe seguir, así como está haciendo Brasil", expresó el político del centrista Partido del Movimiento Democrático Brasileño (PMDB), el principal socio del PT en la coalición que apoya el gobierno de la presidenta reelecta Dilma Rousseff.
Según afirmó este domingo "Financial Times" en su edición en Internet, el Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos inició una investigación penal sobre las denuncias contra Petrobras, que tiene papeles del tipo ADR (American Depositary Receipt) negociados en Nueva York.
"Las autoridades de Estados Unidos están investigando si Petrobras o sus funcionarios, intermediarios o prestadores de servicios violaron el Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (Ley de Prácticas Corruptas en el Exterior), una ley anticorrupción que vuelve ilegal pagar sobornos a funcionarios extranjeros para conquistar o mantener negocios", dijo el informe.
Petrobras es la más importante empresa brasileña y, pese a que es controlada por el Estado, tiene acciones negociadas en Bolsa de Valores, tanto en Brasil como en Estados Unidos. La petrolera no contestó de inmediato un pedido de dpa para que comentara el tema.
Las investigaciones sobre la empresa se desarrollan en secreto, y se basan principalmente en las informaciones suministradas por un ex director de la empresa, Paulo Roberto Costa, arrestado en marzo pasado acusado de nexos con un cambista, Alberto Yousseff, acusados de numerosos delitos, entre ellos lavado de dinero y evasión de impuestos y divisas.
En un intento de reducir su pena, Costa firmó un acuerdo de delación premiada con el Ministerio Público y, según filtraciones de la prensa, admitió que numerosos políticos oficialistas -entre ellos diputados y senadores, gobernadores y ministros- sacaron provecho de la red de corrupción que habría desviado unos 10.000 millones de reales (unos 3.930 millones de dólares) de la petrolera.
En uno de sus pocos testimonios cuyo tenor fue divulgado por la Justicia, el ex director afirmó que destinaba el tres por ciento del monto de cada contrato que firmó entre 2004 y 2012 a agrupaciones oficialistas, entre ellas el PT.

-0- Nov/10/2014 17:47 GMT

[Gaston89]

Recien salio en Bloomberg y lo traje para aca.. ni lo lei.

[dneop]

BN) Petrobras Supplier Sinks as Probe Dims Prospects: Brazil Cr edit

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Petrobras Supplier Sinks as Probe Dims Prospects: Brazil Credit
2014-11-10 17:38:01.200 GMT


(To be sent this column, click SALT BZCREDIT. For credit- market news, click on TOP CM.)

By Peter Millard and Anna Edgerton
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Having Brazil’s state-run oil giant as its main client was a boon for Schahin Petroleo & Gas SA when it sold bonds in 2012. It’s fast becoming a liability.
An expanding bribery investigation surrounding Petroleo Brasileiro SA threatens to delay new offshore orders and put existing contractors under greater scrutiny as government-run Petrobras carries out internal probes and responds to inquiries from Congress and Brazil’s audit court, according to Seaport Group LLC and XP Gestao de Recursos.
Schahin said it has done nothing wrong. Yields on its notes due 2022 had already risen 0.6 percentage point to 6.8 percent since Sept. 8, when testimony from a former Petrobras director now under house arrest was reported in the local media. Its credit rating was lowered three levels to B+ by Standard & Poor’s on Nov. 7, citing weakening liquidity and its continued reliance on Petrobras in a competitive market. S&P made no mention of the investigation. The yield rose to a record 7.4 percent at 12:18 p.m. in New York today.
“It’s likely to slow down, at least contracts with these guys,” Fabiano Santin, a credit analyst at XP, said by telephone from Rio de Janeiro. “That may open the door to companies that have little history supplying Petrobras to win work from the oil producer while the probes are carried out.”

Yield Gap

Schahin, based in Rio, had no involvement in the alleged bribes and money laundering scheme dubbed “Car Wash” by police, the company said in an e-mailed response to questions.
The investigation hasn’t affected the price of its bonds, it said. Petrobras didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment on the impact the investigation has had on its suppliers.
The selloff increased the extra yield that investors demand over the average of energy companies to a peak of 3.54 percentage points on Oct. 21 from 2.53 percentage points on Sept. 8.
Construction and engineering companies including OAS SA and Odebrecht SA that supply goods and services to Petrobras projects have also seen their borrowing costs rise since the investigations gathered speed in early September.
Former Petrobras head of refining Paulo Roberto Costa has alleged that builders formed a cartel to overcharge for projects and divert money to politicians. The investigation has put President Dilma Rousseff, who was Petrobras chairwoman from 2003 to 2010, on the defensive.

Tighter Controls

Odebrecht denied Costa’s allegations and said its bonds are moving in line with the market in an e-mailed response. OAS said it performs its activities with integrity, ethics and respect for the law and declined to comment on the performance of its bonds in an e-mailed response.
Petrobras may impose tighter controls on its procurement procedures in response to the investigations, Michael Roche, a strategist at Seaport, said from New York.
“They would stand to either lose market share or be subject to constraint in their growth in business with Petrobras,” Roche said, referring to Schahin. “It’s exhibiting some specific risks to its price action compared to the market as a whole.”
While Roche and Santin said concern stems from the prospect of a slowdown in Petrobras orders, Schahin was cited in court documents in April when federal police released transcriptions of phone conversations between Alberto Youssef, who is awaiting trial for his alleged role in a 10 billion real ($3.9 billion) laundering operation, and one of his associates, who said Schahin was behind on payments.
The conversation was about 450,000 reais in payments for pipes and had nothing to do with bribes, Schahin said in its e- mailed response. The company said it hasn’t had any communication with investigators.

Congressional Commission

In May, lower house member Joao Magalhaes, who is part of a group of lawmakers investigating Petrobras, requested the release of bank records, tax returns and phone conversations at Schahin, according to the congressional website.
The commission members decided not to follow through with requests for information, and its findings should be voted on by Dec. 17, the Senate office handling the investigation said by e- mail. Congress is gathering support to install a new special commission to investigate Petrobras after the current probe expires this year, according to Joao Paulo Peixoto, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia.

Growth Target

“For the first time in 12 years they have a strong opposition, and they will push hard for the continuation of the investigation,” Peixoto said by telephone from Brasilia. “It’s going to be a bother for Dilma’s second term.”
The investigation comes as Petrobras invests about $100 million a day to double crude output by the end of the decade.
It has been relying on Brazilian suppliers including Schahin to meet regulations that require it to hire Brazilian companies.
Schahin has been partnering with Tokyo-based Modec Inc. to supply production vessels to Petrobras. They submitted the most competitive bid to build a unit for the Tartaruga Verde and Mestica fields and the contract is yet to be signed.
The Cidade de Mangaratiba floating, production, storage and offloading vessel, or FPSO, that started operations last month is the most recent unit the partners delivered to Petrobras, according to a statement on Petrobras’ website.
There haven’t been any delays in the tender process for Tartaruga Verde, Schahin said.
The $750 million of notes issued by Schahin II Finance Co.
are backed by revenue from deep-water drill ship Sertao. S&P said revenue from Schahin’s units that are already built is not at risk.
“Capex, big initiatives, I can see how these can get shelved in the backdrop,” Seaport’s Roche said.

Gaston...me traducis la idea por favor??

[tordosoy]

claro, ahora falta poco, pero cuando lo dije, todos cuestionaban .
Dejá de mirarte el ombligo y aprovechá a llevar en tu target
Acá no hay que tener razón, acá hay que ganar guita. Podes tener razón y esperarla en 60... el papel llega a 60,5 y decidís esperarla un poco más.. de repente se vuela a 100 y no tuviste ni razón (casi) ni plata

Por eso mismo, como esto es bolsa, hago análisis para entrarle a un activo, no opero en forma emocional como si esto fuera el casino.
Hago mis análisis y los cumplo. Y si les publico algunos resultados es para que algunos que no hacen análisis tengan otro punto de vista mas que el aliento al suicidio de la popular.
saludos.

Me parece bárbaro, la confianza en el otro va de la mano de la cantidad de aciertos. Eso es claro
Sigo los AT desde mi anterior traje (desde el 2009 te diría), y la confianza en él es por lo que te decía antes...
Creo que tu jugada será no en adivinar el precio, sino en avisar cuando estés all in en el papel... por ahora el valor que decis vos es una incógnita

[Gaston89]

BN) Petrobras Supplier Sinks as Probe Dims Prospects: Brazil Cr edit

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Petrobras Supplier Sinks as Probe Dims Prospects: Brazil Credit
2014-11-10 17:38:01.200 GMT


(To be sent this column, click SALT BZCREDIT. For credit- market news, click on TOP CM.)

By Peter Millard and Anna Edgerton
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Having Brazil’s state-run oil giant as its main client was a boon for Schahin Petroleo & Gas SA when it sold bonds in 2012. It’s fast becoming a liability.
An expanding bribery investigation surrounding Petroleo Brasileiro SA threatens to delay new offshore orders and put existing contractors under greater scrutiny as government-run Petrobras carries out internal probes and responds to inquiries from Congress and Brazil’s audit court, according to Seaport Group LLC and XP Gestao de Recursos.
Schahin said it has done nothing wrong. Yields on its notes due 2022 had already risen 0.6 percentage point to 6.8 percent since Sept. 8, when testimony from a former Petrobras director now under house arrest was reported in the local media. Its credit rating was lowered three levels to B+ by Standard & Poor’s on Nov. 7, citing weakening liquidity and its continued reliance on Petrobras in a competitive market. S&P made no mention of the investigation. The yield rose to a record 7.4 percent at 12:18 p.m. in New York today.
“It’s likely to slow down, at least contracts with these guys,” Fabiano Santin, a credit analyst at XP, said by telephone from Rio de Janeiro. “That may open the door to companies that have little history supplying Petrobras to win work from the oil producer while the probes are carried out.”

Yield Gap

Schahin, based in Rio, had no involvement in the alleged bribes and money laundering scheme dubbed “Car Wash” by police, the company said in an e-mailed response to questions.
The investigation hasn’t affected the price of its bonds, it said. Petrobras didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment on the impact the investigation has had on its suppliers.
The selloff increased the extra yield that investors demand over the average of energy companies to a peak of 3.54 percentage points on Oct. 21 from 2.53 percentage points on Sept. 8.
Construction and engineering companies including OAS SA and Odebrecht SA that supply goods and services to Petrobras projects have also seen their borrowing costs rise since the investigations gathered speed in early September.
Former Petrobras head of refining Paulo Roberto Costa has alleged that builders formed a cartel to overcharge for projects and divert money to politicians. The investigation has put President Dilma Rousseff, who was Petrobras chairwoman from 2003 to 2010, on the defensive.

Tighter Controls

Odebrecht denied Costa’s allegations and said its bonds are moving in line with the market in an e-mailed response. OAS said it performs its activities with integrity, ethics and respect for the law and declined to comment on the performance of its bonds in an e-mailed response.
Petrobras may impose tighter controls on its procurement procedures in response to the investigations, Michael Roche, a strategist at Seaport, said from New York.
“They would stand to either lose market share or be subject to constraint in their growth in business with Petrobras,” Roche said, referring to Schahin. “It’s exhibiting some specific risks to its price action compared to the market as a whole.”
While Roche and Santin said concern stems from the prospect of a slowdown in Petrobras orders, Schahin was cited in court documents in April when federal police released transcriptions of phone conversations between Alberto Youssef, who is awaiting trial for his alleged role in a 10 billion real ($3.9 billion) laundering operation, and one of his associates, who said Schahin was behind on payments.
The conversation was about 450,000 reais in payments for pipes and had nothing to do with bribes, Schahin said in its e- mailed response. The company said it hasn’t had any communication with investigators.

Congressional Commission

In May, lower house member Joao Magalhaes, who is part of a group of lawmakers investigating Petrobras, requested the release of bank records, tax returns and phone conversations at Schahin, according to the congressional website.
The commission members decided not to follow through with requests for information, and its findings should be voted on by Dec. 17, the Senate office handling the investigation said by e- mail. Congress is gathering support to install a new special commission to investigate Petrobras after the current probe expires this year, according to Joao Paulo Peixoto, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia.

Growth Target

“For the first time in 12 years they have a strong opposition, and they will push hard for the continuation of the investigation,” Peixoto said by telephone from Brasilia. “It’s going to be a bother for Dilma’s second term.”
The investigation comes as Petrobras invests about $100 million a day to double crude output by the end of the decade.
It has been relying on Brazilian suppliers including Schahin to meet regulations that require it to hire Brazilian companies.
Schahin has been partnering with Tokyo-based Modec Inc. to supply production vessels to Petrobras. They submitted the most competitive bid to build a unit for the Tartaruga Verde and Mestica fields and the contract is yet to be signed.
The Cidade de Mangaratiba floating, production, storage and offloading vessel, or FPSO, that started operations last month is the most recent unit the partners delivered to Petrobras, according to a statement on Petrobras’ website.
There haven’t been any delays in the tender process for Tartaruga Verde, Schahin said.
The $750 million of notes issued by Schahin II Finance Co.
are backed by revenue from deep-water drill ship Sertao. S&P said revenue from Schahin’s units that are already built is not at risk.
“Capex, big initiatives, I can see how these can get shelved in the backdrop,” Seaport’s Roche said.

[PiConsultora]

Gracias a todos por las felicitaciones... si a alguien le interesa el informe completo...pida mi mail en Rava.

Salute

[Empirico]

claro, ahora falta poco, pero cuando lo dije, todos cuestionaban .
Dejá de mirarte el ombligo y aprovechá a llevar en tu target
Acá no hay que tener razón, acá hay que ganar guita. Podes tener razón y esperarla en 60... el papel llega a 60,5 y decidís esperarla un poco más.. de repente se vuela a 100 y no tuviste ni razón (casi) ni plata

Por eso mismo, como esto es bolsa, hago análisis para entrarle a un activo, no opero en forma emocional como si esto fuera el casino.
Hago mis análisis y los cumplo. Y si les publico algunos resultados es para que algunos que no hacen análisis tengan otro punto de vista mas que el aliento al suicidio de la popular.
saludos.

[PiConsultora]

The path of least resistance...
Over the last years, we’ve been talking about the rising risk that Petrobras might have
to go through another capital increase to address its rising leverage and we’ve often
been faced with significant investors pushback before we explained the why’s and the
how’s of our reasoning. In essence we see a capital increase as one of the possible
paths that Brazil’s government can follow to address Petrobras’ balance sheet.
The underlying assumption of our belief is that, at some moment, credit markets and
credit rating agencies will see their degree of leniency towards Petrobras’ high and
rising leverage fall and will demand more aggressive action from the company to
either continue to finance its vast capital expenditure program, or to simply keep the
company’s investment grade rating.
Our belief from that moment on is simple. Of all the possible courses of action that
the government might chose, a capital increase is in fact the least painful, least
economically costly and most effective. We do not believe the capital increase will
come because it is the only possible course of action, but rather that the government
will chose that course of action.

Los caminos citados por BTG son:
1) Elevar precios
2)Reducción Capex
3) Venta de activos
4) Capitalización

La única que siempre me dio miedo es una nueva capitalización...en el plan de negocios de PBR y en cada reunión, afirman y reafirman que no habrá nueva emisión de acciones; pero también es cierto que los números no cierran.. si genera 30 e invierte 45; tiene que tomar deuda por 15 y ya deuda le sobra... Veremos que dicen en la conference call del lunes.

[rinkel]

para que vean que no solo aca empoman.....
miren el merval.....
el viernes me fui a COME...y me rompieron el ort....el viernes y hoy
ya me esta gustando

[Tanque]

Felicidades PiC

[Empirico]

todos no,
algunos dirás, probablemente la gran mayoría.
No generalices[/quote]

[quienduda]

Estimados...gracias a Dios, mi niño a nacido en perfecto estado de salud y ya está en casa....

Felicidades!!!

[PiConsultora]

The path of least resistance...
Over the last years, we’ve been talking about the rising risk that Petrobras might have
to go through another capital increase to address its rising leverage and we’ve often
been faced with significant investors pushback before we explained the why’s and the
how’s of our reasoning. In essence we see a capital increase as one of the possible
paths that Brazil’s government can follow to address Petrobras’ balance sheet.
The underlying assumption of our belief is that, at some moment, credit markets and
credit rating agencies will see their degree of leniency towards Petrobras’ high and
rising leverage fall and will demand more aggressive action from the company to
either continue to finance its vast capital expenditure program, or to simply keep the
company’s investment grade rating.
Our belief from that moment on is simple. Of all the possible courses of action that
the government might chose, a capital increase is in fact the least painful, least
economically costly and most effective. We do not believe the capital increase will
come because it is the only possible course of action, but rather that the government
will chose that course of action.