Mensajepor PiConsultora » Lun Nov 10, 2014 2:21 pm
Estimados...gracias a Dios, mi niño a nacido en perfecto estado de salud y ya está en casa....
por el lado de PBR está bien pesimista todo...
copio informe de BTG Pascual y los riesgos que ven de nueva capitalización...
Are we just too irrational to think of capital increases?
Last night, Petrobras announced a price hike for inflation sensitive gasoline and
economy sensitive diesel that was its first in almost a year, after months of significant
refining losses.
Yet, on the back of the price increase we are cutting our target for the company to
$11.2/ADR from $15.5/ADR and reiterating our Neutral rating even if the stock is fairly
close to its lows.
The price increase was not the only driver behind our forecast changes. Lower oil
prices and a weaker currency played a large part in our forecast cuts and new target
calculation.
But the magnitude of the price increase and government official statements that
preceded it made up the bulk of our target setting thought process – effectively
leading into our target price cut.
We understand we are somewhat off consensus in our views. We believe that at
present Petrobras’ balance sheet is more important than the short term earnings
kicker that we see from the price increase.
Petrobras can address the balance sheet in many ways... It can raise prices much
more, but that would lead to significant inflation. It can cut Capex significantly but that
would lead to lower economic activity. It could sell core assets but politics blocks that.
Our lower target and Neutral rating rest on our view that given the choice, Brazil’s
government will not do any of those things and will actually pick the path of least
resistance to address the issue and still get low inflation and high Capex.
We believe the lower oil prices and weaker currency have made the potential for a
capital increase at Petrobras rise. In this report we go through both why we think so
and how we see it playing out with minimal fiscal impact.
Such a scenario, could potentially be very negative for well-intended minority
investors. We believe Petrobras might have to price such a “solution” at around a
30% discount to current valuations and that investors won’t want to be there...
But we are maintaining our Neutral rating nonetheless. On the one hand, we do so
because at present the weighted average of our capital increase scenario (80% at
$8.5) and our muddle through scenario (at $22) is not far from the current share price.
But in part, we do it hoping for real change: (i) the potential that Petrobras is allowed
to raise prices a lot in spite of inflation; (ii) that it is allowed to cut Capex in spite of the
GDP implications; or (iii) the potential that oil prices rally a lot.
