Así nos ven afuera:
BUY ARGENTINA
http://blogs.barrons.com/penta/2014/09/ ... entina-now
... Last March, however, Bienville began traveling once a month to Argentina, to investigate what was then and still is one of the cheapest markets in the world. Argentina has been out of favor for ten years, says chief investment officer Cullen Thompson. The country also has manageable debt, he claims, despite the frightening headlines, at 25% of GDP versus the U.S.’s 81%. Meanwhile, a big political transition in 2015 will be the catalyst for change. Convinced by his own travels and discussions with local experts, he had Bienville launch the Argentina Opportunity Fund this July. It’s investing in depressed Argentinian equities, commercial real estate, and undervalued private companies. To invest in the fund, clients pay 1.5% annually and 20% on profits with a minimum investment of $1 million.
Thompson’s thesis on Argentina is based on
Cristina Kirchner’s populist government stepping down in October 2015. Whoever assumes the presidency will take on a number of issues to right the ship. Among them: Addressing rampant inflation; restoring credibility in the international debt markets; and cutting overly generous state subsidies. Thompson is betting the “
more moderate” candidates will move the country forward, especially as the public tires of populism. Opinion polls suggest the Kirchner presidency is at an all-time low.
In other words, the situation has been so bad for so long, even modest improvement under a new government will create a rally. Prices might have found their floor, Thompson figures. “We are buying at such cheap levels right now, that we think even in a worst case scenario we have strong downside protection. But if we’re right, there is three to four times upside,” he says. George Soros and Dan Loeb of ThirdPoint seem to agree, as both recently made big bets on Argentina.
Thompson is recommending his clients ramp up exposure to Argentina before the 2015 election. Bienville bets big on a small number of plays, which is why Thompson suggests putting as much as 13% of an overall portfolio into Argentina. He won’t tell us about his private company and its specific real estate investments, but he did recommend a few ADRs and locally-listed companies. Thompson likes the energy sector, since Argentine energy tariff reform and increased production from the Vaca Muerta oil and gas deposits should create a boon for the country’s energy industry. He likes U.S.-listed shale company
YPF (ticker: YPF), which controls 40% of the Vaca Muerta shale and was also the subject of a bullish article by Barron’s colleague Andrew Bary.
His other pick is natural gas transporter Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS).