Títulos Públicos
Re: Títulos Públicos
Igual no se olviden de lo más importante, si hay alguien que sabe como moverse y de antemano son los Bancos, aca nada cae por sorpresa, hace más de 1 mes que se habla de la reducción al 20% e incluso al 10%, creen q algún dolobu pudo quedar c algúna posi importante...........no olvidense.
Re: Títulos Públicos
* Event: On September 3, the Argentine Central Bank announced it reduced the maximum FX exposure banks can maintain to 20% of their regulatory capital, from the previous level of 30%. The Central Bank had reduced the limits to 30% for on-balance positions and to 10% for off-balance positions in February 2014. Caps had been removed in 2005.
* Impact on Banks. As of June 30, 2014, the global net FX exposure of the Argentine banking system, including on-balance and off-balance instruments, accounted for 29% of the system's regulatory capital. We estimate that, for every one percentage point reduction in the net FX exposure, on a consolidated basis, banks should reduce positions representing approximately US$150-200 million. Market estimates point to a combined effect of around US$500 million, on a system basis. We believe the new limit reduces the entities' flexibility to protect, in hard currency terms, their net worth in the event of a currency devaluation, with the eventual side-effect of potential losses related to the need to sell FX positions to comply with the new caps. Prior to the introduction of new caps back in February 2014 (when limits were re-established at 30% for on-balance assets and 10% for off-balance instruments), local entities made material profits, in peso terms, based on the faster devaluation pace of the Argentine peso (13% devaluation in 4Q13, and 23% devaluation in 1Q14), in light of their net long position in foreign currency, which had reached ~70% of the system's regulatory capital (see Exhibit 1). Although we do not have information post-2Q14, our banks under coverage were complying, or close to complying with, the new caps as of June 30, 2014 (see Exhibit 2).
* Impact on FX Rate: Based on increasing devaluation expectations, the FX rate gap reached ~70%, after falling to 30/35% in April 2014. The population's acquisition of US dollars for saving purposes jumped to US$260 million in August 2014, from US$207 million in July 2014, and from an accumulated US$845 million during the first semester of 2014. During the first three days of September, daily operations approved by the local IRS have jumped to an average of approximately US$40 million. In our view, the failure to reach an agreement with holdouts would inhibit the government to tap the voluntary capital market (following closing agreements with the Paris Club and YPF, which, in our view, pointed in this direction), which would be key to strengthen the stock of international reserves and reduce FX tension. In this context, we believe the reduction of FX positions to be implemented by banks to comply with the new caps could help to supply US dollars and to contain the FX gap momentarily. However, in the mid-term, the reduction in the FX limits would reduce the Central Bank's firepower, particularly in the next six months, when the reduction of US dollar inflows related to seasonal factors (e.g. soy exports during the fourth quarter of the year usually represent 15-20% of annual exports), could increase FX tensions. It is worth noting the CB was capable of stabilizing the FX rate just after January's devaluation, in our view, thanks to a combination of material reductions in FX exposure caps (forcing banks to reduce their positions by 40 percentage points), and a marked increase in interest rates (10 percentage points), creating a "bridge" until April/May when agro dollar inflows usually increase.
* Impact on Banks. As of June 30, 2014, the global net FX exposure of the Argentine banking system, including on-balance and off-balance instruments, accounted for 29% of the system's regulatory capital. We estimate that, for every one percentage point reduction in the net FX exposure, on a consolidated basis, banks should reduce positions representing approximately US$150-200 million. Market estimates point to a combined effect of around US$500 million, on a system basis. We believe the new limit reduces the entities' flexibility to protect, in hard currency terms, their net worth in the event of a currency devaluation, with the eventual side-effect of potential losses related to the need to sell FX positions to comply with the new caps. Prior to the introduction of new caps back in February 2014 (when limits were re-established at 30% for on-balance assets and 10% for off-balance instruments), local entities made material profits, in peso terms, based on the faster devaluation pace of the Argentine peso (13% devaluation in 4Q13, and 23% devaluation in 1Q14), in light of their net long position in foreign currency, which had reached ~70% of the system's regulatory capital (see Exhibit 1). Although we do not have information post-2Q14, our banks under coverage were complying, or close to complying with, the new caps as of June 30, 2014 (see Exhibit 2).
* Impact on FX Rate: Based on increasing devaluation expectations, the FX rate gap reached ~70%, after falling to 30/35% in April 2014. The population's acquisition of US dollars for saving purposes jumped to US$260 million in August 2014, from US$207 million in July 2014, and from an accumulated US$845 million during the first semester of 2014. During the first three days of September, daily operations approved by the local IRS have jumped to an average of approximately US$40 million. In our view, the failure to reach an agreement with holdouts would inhibit the government to tap the voluntary capital market (following closing agreements with the Paris Club and YPF, which, in our view, pointed in this direction), which would be key to strengthen the stock of international reserves and reduce FX tension. In this context, we believe the reduction of FX positions to be implemented by banks to comply with the new caps could help to supply US dollars and to contain the FX gap momentarily. However, in the mid-term, the reduction in the FX limits would reduce the Central Bank's firepower, particularly in the next six months, when the reduction of US dollar inflows related to seasonal factors (e.g. soy exports during the fourth quarter of the year usually represent 15-20% of annual exports), could increase FX tensions. It is worth noting the CB was capable of stabilizing the FX rate just after January's devaluation, in our view, thanks to a combination of material reductions in FX exposure caps (forcing banks to reduce their positions by 40 percentage points), and a marked increase in interest rates (10 percentage points), creating a "bridge" until April/May when agro dollar inflows usually increase.
Re: Títulos Públicos
fabio escribió:si, si sacamos las mafias de encima vuelve a valer $ 4,00, porque no se olvidan del relato un ratito
No te entiendo fabio, yo me refiero a los grandes jugadores del billete
Re: Títulos Públicos
Igual no se olviden de lo más importante, si hay alguien que sabe como moverse y de antemano son los Bancos, aca nada cae por sorpresa, hace más de 1 mes que se habla de la reducción al 20% e incluso al 10%, creen q algún dolobu pudo quedar c algúna posi importante...........no olvidense.
Re: Títulos Públicos
grax80 escribió:Buen día.
Pregunta de recién iniciado.
Si estoy leyendo bien este es un buen momento(ya) para un pequeño ahorrista para comprar RO15, dado que su precio bajaría para volver a subir?
Alguien me puede decir exactamente en qué fecha obligaron a los bancos a reducir su posición en USd al 30%?
Gracias!
Chiqui,
Bienvenida por favor al Sr.
Re: Títulos Públicos
Buen día.
Pregunta de recién iniciado.
Si estoy leyendo bien este es un buen momento(ya) para un pequeño ahorrista para comprar RO15, dado que su precio bajaría para volver a subir?
Alguien me puede decir exactamente en qué fecha obligaron a los bancos a reducir su posición en USd al 30%?
Gracias!
Pregunta de recién iniciado.
Si estoy leyendo bien este es un buen momento(ya) para un pequeño ahorrista para comprar RO15, dado que su precio bajaría para volver a subir?
Alguien me puede decir exactamente en qué fecha obligaron a los bancos a reducir su posición en USd al 30%?
Gracias!
Re: Títulos Públicos
El que quiere salir de bonos dolarizados mal o bien, con mayor o menor rotura tujeana lo puede hacer pero el que quiere salir de DL, MAMADERA!!!
Re: Títulos Públicos
En la Div las Pta vendedoras son del BCRA/NAción 
Re: Títulos Públicos
Es más las pTas vendedoras son del Nación/ BCRA
Re: Títulos Públicos
La divisa, el dolar Mep sin op, nadie larga nada a menos de 8.41, veremos al final obvio
Re: Títulos Públicos
Nevermore escribió:billete arrancó 13,80/14 se operaba en el medio,
ahora pagan 14 y no hay vendedor...
las mismas mafias de siempre...
si, si sacamos las mafias de encima vuelve a valer $ 4,00, porque no se olvidan del relato un ratito
Re: Títulos Públicos
Es más aca negociando primera op 2.58M VN a 12.35 y 1M a 12.34
Re: Títulos Públicos
Tampoco creo que alcance con esto solo, por ahí se viene un anuncio peor en breve....
-
Alfredo 2011
- Mensajes: 26637
- Registrado: Jue Jul 14, 2011 10:59 am
Re: Títulos Públicos
“Se viene una devaluación del dólar oficial, solo se está discutiendo cómo”
Bulat
http://www.cronista.com/economiapolitic ... -0070.html
Bulat
http://www.cronista.com/economiapolitic ... -0070.html
Re: Títulos Públicos
billete arrancó 13,80/14 se operaba en el medio,
ahora pagan 14 y no hay vendedor...
las mismas mafias de siempre...
ahora pagan 14 y no hay vendedor...
las mismas mafias de siempre...
¿Quién está conectado?
Usuarios navegando por este Foro: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot], carlos_2681, elcipayo16, Ezex, gago, gastons, Google [Bot], j5orge, jose enrique, malbroung, Morlaco, notescribo, Semrush [Bot], wal772 y 416 invitados