SMART escribió:CLARISIMO PORTEÑO A ESO APUNTABA, LA VERDAD QUE LO QUE HAGAN CON LOS ADRS, ME IMPORTA UN BLEDO, ES OBVIO QUE VAN A VENDER POSICION EN ARGENTINA, PERO LA INFLACION GALOPANTE QUE SE VIENE, HARA VOLAR LOS PRECIOS DE LAS ACCIONES EN PESOS OBVIO, Y QUIZAS LAS MAS PERJUDICADAS SEAN LAS QUE TIENEN ADRS.
RESPECTO A LA NOTA. ME PARECEN INTERESANTES ALGUNOS PUNTOS
Avoid Argentina Stocks This Year
Jan. 26, 2014 8:23 AM ET| Includes: APSA, ARGT, BFR, BMA, CRESY, EDN, GGAL, IRS, NTL, PAM, PZE, TEO, TGS, TS, TX, YPF
Porque los más perjudicados serían los adrs ? no estarían más cubiertos por el CCL
Emerging equity markets are having another bad year so far. Some of the emerging market currencies such as the Russian Ruble, Turkish Lira, Argentina Peso, etc. fell heavily this week, adversely affecting the stock markets. As investors fled the emerging markets, developed markets also followed, especially this past week. Argentina is one of the main initiators of the recent emerging market panic. Unlike last year, Argentine stocks have performed poorly this year. Though Argentina seemed to have turned a corner last year, it now appears it is headed for more trouble this year.
Ten reasons to avoid Argentine stocks this year are noted below:
1.Inflation is the second highest in Latin America after Venezuela. It is estimated to reach around 30% this year.Though the official rate was around 11% in December, 2013 everyone believes that number is cooked up by the government.
INFLACION MAS ALTA, LISTO PARA SER HIPER CUANDO SUPERA EL 30% SE CONSIDERA HIPER....
2.Argentines have lost faith in the state. According to a recent poll, 62% disapprove of way the government handles the economy. Nearly three-fourths disapprove of the government's handling the inflation and crime. On the global level, investors have not restored their faith and trust in Argentina for years.
GOBIERNO SIN CONFIANZA GENERADA VAN TODOS AL BLUE Y COBERTURAS Y ESPECULACION.
3.The Argentine currency Peso is in shaky-- if not freefall mode.
EL PESO ES TEMBLANDO, O SEA TODAVIA LE FALTA UNA GRAN PUT.A DEVALUACION.
4.Foreign currency reserves have been decreasing since last year as shown in the chart below:
RESERVAS SE CAEN COMO POR UN TOBOGAN DE HIELO.
5.As a commodity-dependent economy Argentina's finances are unlikely to improve unless commodity prices rise. Unlike Brazil and Chile, the country is particularly dependent on agricultural commodities such as soya beans.
IMPROBABLE LA SOJA LOS SALVE.
6.The state's intervention in the workings of the market and the economy is extremely high. Price controls and currency management by the Central Bank have only made the situation worse. Actions such as nationalization of private companies have made foreign investors avoid the country like the plague.
TODO EL PERSONAL CONTRATADO POR EL ESTADO.... TOTALMENTE IMPRODUCTIVOS, POR ESO ALGUNOS TIENEN DOS LABUROS O TRES...
7.Government spending is very high and is likely to continue until the president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is out of the office.
GASTO PUBLICO MUY ALTO...Y AGREGARIA VA A ESTAR MAS ALTO
8.The government has failed to stop capital flight and foreign investment flows into the country.
SE FUGAN LOS CAPITALES.
9.The current dividend yield for Argentina equities is 1.3% and the P/E ratio is 4.2. Brazil and Chile have yields of 4.3% and 3.0% respectively. The P/E for Brazil and Chile are 13.0 and 17.1 according to FT market data. Obviously the low P/E for Argentina means the country is not an attractive market to invest in now.
PAIS NO ATRACTIVO
10.Economic growth is projected to be very modest this year. IMF projects the real GDP to grow by just 2.8%.
CRECIMIENTO NEGATIVO EN TERMINOS DE DOLARES Y POSITIVO EN TERMINOS DE PESOS.
RESUMEN:
FALTA UN TIEMPO PARA QUE SE ACELERE LA MECHA, Y ESTO EXPLOTE Y DE DEJEN DE ROMPE.R LAS PE.LOTAS.
PD. PORTEÑO TE QUIEREN VER EN LA BASE AEREA EL PALOMAR, UNOS AMIGOS QUE ENCONTRAMOS CON EL PASTOR, DE LA INFANCIA, AVISANOS DESPUES X FONO. 
