mmarcodelpont escribió:Argentine securities tied to economic growth will generate a payout equal to over 70 percent of their cost within six months, making the warrants a buy to Nomura Holdings Inc. and Bulltick Capital Markets even as this year’s slowdown means there likely won’t be a payment in 2013.
The securities fell 32 percent over the past three months to 9.13 cents as concern mounted that President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s policies would limit the expansion in South America’s second-biggest economy. Government dollar bonds sank 20.5 percent in the same period, compared with an average decline of 0.1 percent for Latin American debt, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
Warrant holders will receive a 6.45-cent payout in December prompted by 8.9 percent growth last year, and dividends will resume in 2014, according to Bulltick. The currency controls imposed over the past year and import restrictions led to an excessive selloff in the securities, which may be worth about twice their current price, said Alberto Bernal, the head of fixed-income research at Bulltick in Miami.
“It’s just incredible that the market is pricing in these assets with such a humongous discount,” Bernal said by phone.
“Even though the risk-reward looks very attractive, in a risk- off environment with capital flight and with a Kirchner administration, investors just don’t want to run the risk.”
Argentina’s economy will grow 2.75 percent this year, according to the median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, below the 3.3 percent needed to ensure a coupon payment in 2013. The warrants, issued as part of debt restructurings in 2005 and 2010, pay investors when gross domestic product expands more than 3.26 percent and the inflation-adjusted value of the country’s output is above the base-case scenario laid out in the securities.
Es contradictorio lo que dice.
Dice que es increible el descuento al que esta valuado este titulo y despues lo justifica. No aclara descuento de qué, porque esto es una opcion, no es renta fija.
Por ahora el único pago cierto es 2012.
Acá abajo postean que es
imposible crecer durante 10 años por debajo del 3,26%. Eso parece más una creencia religiosa que una hipótesis fundamentada.
Además de eso, tenemos riesgo inflacionario y devaluatorio (descarto por ahora el riesgo de crédito)