Cada vez que dudo, leo este tipo de researchs:
Fuente: Credit "Sucio"
We think that annual CPI inflation, just above 20% according to private
estimates, is likely to remain range-bound for the next several quarters. High
inflation does not seem to be a big concern for consumers and, while it may
be creating inefficiencies in the economy, it does not seem to be hurting
activity significantly
We recently revised our 2011 real GDP
growth forecast to 8% from 7%
previously. The upward revision reflects
the higher-than-expected expansion of real
GDP in Q1 (2.8% quarter on quarter
seasonally adjusted non-annualized, or
9.9% year on year), the strength of recent
indicators (for example, the monthly GDP
proxy and the privately estimated IP index
have grown in sequential terms in April
and May) and our view that, barring a
sharp slowdown of global growth, activity
is unlikely to decelerate significantly in the
second half of 2011. We note that our
growth forecast refers to the official GDP
data, which, according to local observers
continues to overstate the pace of the
economic expansion. Although the gap
between the official GDP series and (in our
view) the more realistic privately estimated
GDP data may be quite large in level terms (due to the cumulative effect of overstating
nominal and real GDP for several years), the gap in the growth rates is currently not that
large (at most one percentage point, according to local economists).
For 2012, we project real GDP growth of 5%. Several factors lead us to expect weaker
growth next year: (1) a smaller contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP growth,
directly and indirectly, as we do not expect a significant increase in the volume harvested
(the cereal and grains harvest has already been near historical records for the past two
years) or in international prices for cereals and grains; (2) the potential for less expansive
fiscal and monetary policies, particularly if there is an attempt to curb inflationary
pressures; (3) lower growth of household income, as both employment and real wages are
likely to grow at a weaker pace. Meanwhile, with the statistical carryover expected to add
2.5 percentage points to real GDP growth next year, we do not think that our projection is
overly optimistic either.
abrazo
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