apolo1102 escribió:Del J.P. Morgan de hoy:
We recommend shifting the tactical marketweight in
Argentina back to overweight in our model portfolio.
Exposure to high beta EM credit is again attractive as
market expectations over support from potential US QE2 is
dominating perceptions over downside risk to growth in
core economies. We recommend shifting the tactical
marketweight in Argentina back to overweight in our
model portfolio by buying $2.25 million Discount bonds at
a price of 84.00. While the mid part of the curve offers a
yield pick up to the long end, supply risk is concentrated in
mid-duration USD- and ARS-denominated bonds as
discretionary sales from ANSES are likely to continue.
The policy status quo in Argentina provides a favorable
backdrop for bondholders with the 2011 budget draft
confirming expectations that intentions to continue using
Central Bank reserves to backstop the Treasury's debt
payments for up to $7.5 billion are intact. Political conflicts
will linger but the opposition's offensive in Congress seems
unlikely to shift the policy course ahead of the October
2011 election (including the resistance to backing the
budget's call for using reserves since the Executive could
impose it by decree if needed). Politics may, however,
delay execution of liability management initiatives. The
Terms of trade and external demand remain favorable
implying that the erosion of the trade surplus — the key
anchor for current policies — is still only gradual. Investors
remain overweight external credit, but the expectations of
greater ARS stability ahead of the October 2011 election
has prompted a rotation into ARS assets and moderately
lightened positioning in the USD curve.
apolo, se agradece.
