TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI

[pablo9494]

Fernandez Buys Dollars in `Draconian' Bid to Weaken Peso: Argentina Credit

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s efforts to weaken the peso are working, while policy makers in emerging markets from Brazil to South Africa fail to curb currency rallies.

The peso has declined 0.8 percent in the past three months against the dollar, the only retreat among 25 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg

Argentine central bank President Mercedes Marco del Pont said Sept. 2 that the institution seeks to maintain a “competitive” exchange rate after dollar inflows climbed to a two-year high of $392 million in the second quarter, the second time since 2008 that flows were positive. The bank, which doesn’t target a benchmark lending rate, buys dollars in the local foreign exchange market and limits appreciation by requiring investors deposit 30 percent of the funds brought into the country for one year.

Argentina is “definitely bucking the trend because they’re able to intervene aggressively,” said Aryam Vazquez, an economist with Wells Fargo in New York. “It’s a little bit more challenging for a country like Brazil, for example, which attracts a heavy amount of capital.”

The dollar inflows followed Fernandez’s completion of a $12.9 billion defaulted debt swap in June and after grain exporters began selling a record 55 million metric ton soybean harvest.

Argentina’s peso dropped 0.2 percent on Sept. 24, the most in five weeks, to 3.9601 per dollar, extending its decline this year to 4.1 percent. The currency touched 3.9602 per dollar, the weakest level since its inception in 1992.

Tapping Reserves (Aprovechando las reservas)

The central bank said in its daily e-mail statement that it last bought dollars on Sept. 23, when reserves reached a record $51.3 billion.

Fernandez last week nominated Marco del Pont, who backed the government’s use of $6.6 billion in international reserves to pay debt this year, to remain in her post after it was set to expire Sept. 23. Economy Minister Amado Boudou presented lawmakers with a plan on Sept. 16 to tap another $7.5 billion in reserves to make debt payments next year.

Paying debt with reserves fuels inflation by freeing up budget money for other uses, said Claudio Loser, a former International Monetary Fund official, in a Sept. 22 interview. Consumer prices will rise 25 percent this year, more than double the official rate of 11.1 percent and the most in the world after Venezuela, former central bank President Alfonso Prat-Gayestimated in a Sept. 16 interview.

Lagging Investment (Retraso en las inversiones)

Foreign direct investment in Argentina totaled $4.9 billion in 2009, compared with $26 billion in Brazil and $17 billion in Chile, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America. Brazil is the largest economy in South America followed by Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia and Chile, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Argentina has been “rational” in its use of reserves to make debt payments this year and won’t sell bonds overseas at 8 percent or above, Fernandez said Sept. 24.

“Today rates are in the single digits, but we aren’t interested in taking on debt that could be at 8 or 8.75 percent,” Fernandez told reporters in New York.

An Argentina central bank official in Buenos Aires declined to comment and asked not to be identified by name in accordance with official policy.

Among other debt sales, Buenos Aires province officials met with investors in Europe and the U.S. last week about plans to sell about $500 million, according to a ministry official who declined to be identified because the terms haven’t been completed.

Shareholders of Aeropuertos Argentinas 2000 SA, the country’s main airport operator, earlier this month approved plans to sell as much as $300 million in bonds.

Credit-Default Swaps (Seguros contra riesgo de defaults)

Five-year credit-default swaps tied to Argentine debt fell eight basis points to 762 at the end of last week. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to debt agreements.

The extra yield investors demand to own Argentine bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries dropped 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage point, to 680 last week, according to JPMorgan.

Warrants linked to growth in South America’s second-biggest economy rose 0.02 cent to 11.8 cents, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

[Filiberto]

Por que Pabito¿

He vueto, jeje

[pablo9494]

yo insisto en que el at no sirve de mucho pasra los cupones.
como el contexto gral. prosigue positivo y las noticias son favorables para Argentina lo que hare es:

- no asustarme mas con las futuras volatilidades del cupon.
- mantenerme un 90% en tvpp, y el 10% restante en AE14 .
- ese AE 14 me sirve como refugio de valor ante las eventuales oscilaciones del tvpp.
-y como ultimo recurso si llegara a tener alguna otra baja fuerte aprovechare la caucion, si la baja es considerable no dudare en caucionarme un 100% para luego bajarla cuando se reacomode.
-me mantendre hasta el pago de la renta en un 70%-
-solo vendere un 20% y no volvere a entrar si alcanza un valor de $13- sea el mes que sea, de lo contrario me quedo y cobro la renta.
mirare un poco menos la pantalla, no sirve estar encima todos los dias.

Me guardo este post.

[alejoalejo]

Hace un rato Felletti en el Destape: 8,9% el crecimiento proyectado para este año. Buena semana. Alejandro

[Oportunista]

Ojo donde miran los futuros, no será una maravilla pero mejor usar:

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx (otra gentileza de Phan, y van...)

Está 0.15% arriba y recortando, pero creo que poco importa hasta mañana 10.30 / 11 no vale la pena adivinar mucho.

Buena semana!

[AUGUSTO]

Asia verde furioso, esperemos el Don Juan sostenga fin de rueda del viernes y buen comienzo de semana...

DJ futuro en 10.828 (+ 2%). Veremos mañana.

[atrevido]

Cria y apolo coincidiendo.

Algo MUY RARO debe estar pasando. Tal cual expresaba otro connotado forista: mañana Lunes agarrate...el Kuperno vuela 10% ...o lo defaultean y todo terminó.

CUANDO LO RACIONAL prima sobre LO EMOCIONAL EN CRIA OCURREN ESTOS FENOMENOS RAROS.
Lo que ocurre por lo general es que lo emocional contamina lo racional....

[atrevido]

3.72 TVPP
Y 3.169 USS TVPY /a

Gracias Atrevido[/quote]
Tene presente que aunque los crecimientos del 2011 y sucesivos sean menores al del 2010/(pero obvio mayores al 3.29% o 3.26% , por ahi, no me acuerdo bien ) los pagos SERAN CRECIENTES.
Increible , pero real
CRECIMIENTOS DECRECIENTES Y PAGOS CRECIENTES.

[de_a_poquito]

Cria y apolo coincidiendo.

Algo MUY RARO debe estar pasando. Tal cual expresaba otro connotado forista: mañana Lunes agarrate...el Kuperno vuela 10% ...o lo defaultean y todo terminó.