TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI

[martin]

Los están recomendando en varias lados por lo visto.....

[Pamperito]

Como los lomos
poco yo tomo
como todos? nooooo
Cómo somos TODOS?
tontos? noooooo
bobos,nooooo
locos? mmmm
zonzos? noooooo
forros? mmmm
SOMOS MOROSOS
OJO POR OJO
ocho por ocho
chotos los tochos
socotroco por orto
ohhhhhhh
Coco, Toto,Rocco,son pocos, son oro
¡ojo con Mongo!

[Kubrick]

a mi me llego por mail hoy ala manana

[Kubrick]

eso es lo q postee antes ...lo tuyo mas organizado , se agradece

[PAC]

[quote="PAC

quedense en la PC pero habran un word y hagan listas de sus prioridades.

si lo primero es la bolsa... preguntate xq -ya que ese lugar es incorrecto-

xq la bolsa si la respuesta es dinero ... preguntate xq... y ojo xq si la respuesta es Por poder... reputación ...ESTAS FRITO... y necesitas terapia intensiva...

mientras dura la crisis mejor hacer reflexiones... busacar al niño interior y crecer en libertad y entonces Bienvenida la crisis !!!

hagan esto que vale la pena

escriban en dos hojas distintas una todo lo que desean con prioridad de 1 a 10 donde flia primero dinero ultimo
y otro 1 a 10 todo lo que no quieren que pase...

de los dos papeles el de lo malo lo queman despues te escribirlo

el otro lo guardan como un tesoro y con un tiempo vean lo que consiguen..

luego de la lista lo conseguido lo tachan y agregan otras cosas y hacen otra con cosas que no y vuelven a quemar...

la mente es como una PC por mas que paresca raro veran resultados que ni ustedes imaginan.

[atrevido]

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[Kubrick]

After last week’s sell-off we are of the view that there is value in the GDP units. We believe that the dividend yields
for 2011 are high, and suitable for those investors willing to accept Argentinean credit risk. Despite the country’s
weak fundamentals, we do not consider that the government will fail to meet the payment due in December 2011.
We favor the AR$ and EUR warrants since dividend yields are higher and there is a sizable potential upside.

GDP
Warrants Mrkt Price
Dividend
Yield 2011
Theoretical
Price
Potential
upside
AR$ US$ 1.67 37.0% US$ 2.5 +51%
USD US$ 6.85 29.2% US$ 10.2 +48%
EUR EUR 5.80 34.5% EUR 9 +55%

Macroeconomic framework
In order to estimate the payment of the GDP warrants due in December 2011, and thus the dividend yield of each
unit, we used a mix of GDP growth and GDP deflator growth forecasts for 2010. Our base case scenario includes a
+5% expected GDP growth, based on the better-than-expected harvest, a statistical carryover close to +1.6%, and
a rebound in the industrial sector. In addition, although inflation could harm consumption, we believe that the
latter will keep pace due to the labor unions’ ability to prevent a decline in real income.
Regarding the GDP deflator, the future official figure is more uncertain since we are forced to guess the extent of
inflation underreporting by INDEC. An additional problem when we address the issue of trying to forecast the GDP
deflator is that it is not necessarily similar to the CPI growth rate. An interesting approach consists of inferring this
figure through the estimated nominal GDP ($1.380.000 MM) and the real GDP growth (+4.9%), according to the
monthly survey released by the Central Bank. The implied result is a GDP deflator growth rate of +16%.Furthermore, we obtain the same result if we deduct 8pp from the real inflation estimated in +24%, repeating the
gap between the real inflation of +27% and GDP deflator growth rate of +19% released by INDEC in 2008.

Dividend Yields
We use this scenario and $/USD exchange rate forecasts ($4.22 for 2010 and $4.60 for 2011) to calculate the
payments for 2011: AR$4.85, USD3.35 and EUR3.38, for the AR$, USD and EUR warrants, respectively. Based on
current market prices, we can see that all the units deliver high dividends yields, especially the AR$ and EUR GDP
warrants (over 34%). 13% 16% 20% 13% 16% 20%
4,0% $ 4,45 $ 4,57 $ 4,73 4,0% 34,2% 35,0% 36,1%
4,5% $ 4,59 $ 4,71 $ 4,87 4,5% 35,1% 36,0% 37,1%
5,0% $ 4,72 $ 4,85 $ 5,02 5,0% 36,1% 37,0% 38,1%
5,5% $ 4,86 $ 4,99 $ 5,16 5,5% 37,0% 37,9% 39,1%
6,0% $ 5,00 $ 5,13 $ 5,30 6,0% 38,0% 38,9% 40,1%
13% 16% 20% 13% 16% 20%
4,0% USD 3,08 USD 3,16 USD 3,27 4,0% 26,9% 27,6% 28,5%
4,5% USD 3,17 USD 3,26 USD 3,37 4,5% 27,7% 28,4% 29,3%
5,0% USD 3,27 USD 3,35 USD 3,47 5,0% 28,5% 29,2% 30,1%
5,5% USD 3,36 USD 3,45 USD 3,57 5,5% 29,2% 30,0% 30,9%
6,0% USD 3,45 USD 3,55 USD 3,67 6,0% 30,0% 30,7% 31,7%
13% 16% 20% 13% 16% 20%
4,0% € 3,10 € 3,18 € 3,29 4,0% 31,9% 32,7% 33,7%
4,5% € 3,19 € 3,28 € 3,39 4,5% 32,8% 33,6% 34,6%
5,0% € 3,29 € 3,38 € 3,49 5,0% 33,7% 34,5% 35,6%
5,5% € 3,38 € 3,47 € 3,59 5,5% 34,6% 35,4% 36,5%
6,0% € 3,48 € 3,57 € 3,69 6,0% 35,5% 36,3% 37,5%
Estimated payments 15/12/2011 Dividend Yield in US$ (annualized)
AR$ GDP Warrant AR$ GDP Warrant
GDP deflator growth rate 2010 GDP deflator growth rate 2010
GDP growth
rate 2010
GDP growth
rate 2010 GDP growth
rate 2010
USD GDP Warrant USD GDP Warrant
GDP growth
rate 2010 GDP growth
rate 2010
EUR GDP Warrant EUR GDP Warrant
GDP deflator growth rate 2010 GDP deflator growth rate 2010
GDP deflator growth rate 2010 GDP deflator growth rate 2010
GDP growth
rate 2010
Simulation Model
Finally, in order to obtain a theoretical price we run our Montecarlo simulation model under a worst case scenario,
where we expect GDP to grow by +4% in 2010 and +2.5% in 2011 (below market consensus), and we set GDP
deflator in +16% and +15%, respectively. In the long term real GDP growth rate tends to an equilibrium median of
+2.7% and the inflation rate declines until 2015, where it remains at a stable +4% rate.
According to our valuation model GDP warrants are trading far below their fair value. Fair value of the warrants is
of USD10.2 for the USD unit, USD2.5 for the AR$ warrant, and EUR9 for the EUR warrant. Although we do not
expect an appreciation in the near term due to the high risk-aversion prevailing in the market we still see value in
the warrants at current prices. Even with a pessimistic outlook about the path of the economy for the next years,
we have to consider that units tied to GDP are very long term instruments and GDP growth rate volatility in
Argentina is high, therefore the "option" should be worth something beyond the coupon due in 2011.

[atrevido]

Para Atrevido con afecto:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KL76edqCKc

Saludos, Roque Feler

Es hermoso, pero este es SAGRADO :110:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BJPW8YmP_U

[Roque Feler]

Para Atrevido con afecto:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KL76edqCKc

Saludos, Roque Feler