KEY POINT: The local press in Argentina has been releasing information related the upcoming debt exchange. There is also some official and material information moving around the markets thanks to the CONSOB filling (Italian regulator). Based on our initial findings, we think that the terms offered to the professional investors are somewhat worse than market expectations, but the terms to be offered to the retail investor are somewhat better than market expectations. Regardless of the terms offered being somewhat less appealing than initially expected, we think that the participation on the reopening will surprise investors and analysts on the upside, if world risk aversion remains more or less stable at the date the exchange is closed, which we estimate will be April 30th. According to our calculations, and using the bits and pieces of information that are circulating the market at this point in time (we caution the reader that a material amount of information is lacking to present a definitive valuation), the value of the offer for institutional investors is likely to come at around $48, and for retail investors the value increases to $52, using an exit yield estimation of 11%.
abrazo
salva +2
